Saturday's 4:30PM ET Game
Cincinnati @ Houston
The Texans are playing at home as 4.5-point favorites in the Wild Card Round, but this is a club springing leaks. Houston has dropped three of its last four games and become a different team over the course of the year. The run game isn't nearly as dominant as it used to be. When Arian Foster hasn't faced the Colts' bottom-four run defense, he's managed 392 yards on his last 117 carries (3.35 YPC), wearing down on a league-most 391 touches. Houston's pass defense, another early-season strength, has been problematic since midyear. The Texans haven't so much as intercepted a pass since Dec. 2, over that span allowing Andrew Luck (twice), Christian Ponder, and Tom Brady to amass a 9:0 TD-to-INT ratio against them. Cincinnati is a much hotter team, having won seven of its last eight with the lone loss occurring in Week 14 versus Dallas, 20-19, in a game the Bengals controlled for three-plus quarters. Aside from the fact that the Texans are at home, it's hard to pinpoint reasons for confidence in Gary Kubiak's team. ... A.J. Green is the big name in Cincy's offensive corps, but complementary pass catchers Jermaine Gresham and Andrew Hawkins may give Wade Phillips' defense just as many issues. Having lost inside linebackers Brian Cushing (ACL) and Darryl Sharpton (hip) for the season, the Texans will trot out coverage-deficient veterans Bradie James and Tim Dobbins as starters. Houston slot corner Brice McCain is out with a broken foot. Feisty, elusive, and deceptively physical, Hawkins will be a tough cover for overmatched fill-in CB Brandon Harris. Gresham is a pedestrian talent, but he too will be a difficult assignment for the likes of James, Dobbins, and Barrett Ruud. The Bengals can win these matchups over the middle.
Green will square off with Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson on the perimeter. Rather than shadowing No. 1 receivers, the Texans have generally played "sides" at corner this year, leaving Joseph on the right and Jackson on the left. Joseph had a disappointing season and at this point is arguably the weaker link. Houston's pass defense failings make this a plus matchup for Green and upstart rookie X receiver Marvin Jones, who sees far fewer targets than Green but flashes playmaking ability. ... For the second straight year, Andy Dalton has faded down the stretch. Over his last five games, he's accounted for six touchdowns compared to seven turnovers with a paltry 5.84 yards-per-attempt average. Dalton has talent limitations, and they become glaring when his pass protection experiences any hint of leakage, or when Green isn't consistently winning outside. Dalton and a run game that was down, then up, then down again over the course of the year are Cincinnati's biggest question marks. ... J.J. Watt is a literal one-man wrecking crew. He carried Houston's pass rush on his back this season, leading the NFL with 20.5 sacks. Watt moves all around the formation, playing tackle in dime packages and both end spots on base downs. Neutralizing Watt will be critical for Cincy's upset chances. The Bengals have a top-five offensive line, excelling in both pass and run blocking. ... Feature back BenJarvus Green-Ellis will start against the Texans, but missed Week 17 with a hamstring strain and whether he'll be at full strength Saturday is uncertain. The Texans' heavyweight front seven defends inside runners like Green-Ellis much better than perimeter threats ala Bengals pace-change back Cedric Peerman, so it might not be a bad idea for playcaller Jay Gruden to scale back Green-Ellis' snaps. If Gruden insists on feeding an ineffective Law Firm, the Cincy offense could render itself one dimensional.
Foster made fantasy football owners happy all year, but his on-field performance has increasingly become a major worry. And it's not all on him. Using rare offensive line committees at right tackle (Derek Newton, Ryan Harris) and right guard (rookies Brandon Brooks and Ben Jones), the Texans have struggled mightily on outside zone runs. The run game is the foundation of Houston's offense, and it's become decidedly mediocre. On Saturday, the right side of Houston's line will match up with Bengals All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins and wickedly-talented left end Carlos Dunlap. Not only does Cincinnati rank third in the NFL in sacks (51), it creates run-game havoc via backfield penetration. This defense is good enough up front to thwart Houston's sagging ground attack, turning Matt Schaub from glorified game manager into the single biggest reason the Texans win or lose. ... Recent play suggests Schaub isn't the man for the job. Timid and too reliant on the checkdown, Schaub has completed 84-of-131 passes for 946 yards (7.22 YPA), one touchdown, and three interceptions over the last four games. He's also absorbed 12 sacks, the highest total during a four-game stretch of Schaub's career. As alluded to previously, Mike Zimmer's defense happens to be pretty good at rushing the passer. It's another big cause for concern for Houston.
Houston and Cincinnati met in last year's Wild Card Round, as well, and Andre Johnson whipped the Bengals for 90 yards and a touchdown on five receptions. It's debatable whether last year's playoff stats have any relevance whatsoever for the rematch, but Johnson could conceivably put up even bigger numbers should Zimmer's front seven control the Texans' rushing design, as is being predicted here. Johnson was an absolute monster in the 2012 regular season, setting a career high with 1,598 receiving yards at age 31. ... Houston uses a rotation of possession threat Kevin Walter and rookie DeVier Posey at Z receiver. Walter has topped 33 yards just once since mid-November, while Posey is attempting to battle through a recent spate of drops. Any production the Texans get from Walter or Posey should be considered a bonus. ... A big-time pass-catching weapon early in the season, injuries have pushed tight end Owen Daniels to the backburner for the past month and a half. Daniels has dealt with chest, knee, hamstring, and back ailments dating back to Week 12, failing to clear 50 receiving yards in any of the ensuing six games. Kubiak's offense was at its early- and midseason best when Daniels, X-factor Garrett Graham, and swiss-army-knife fullback James Casey were clicking in two- and three-tight end packages. But it hasn't been that way for awhile. The Texans will move the ball in the passing game if Daniels shows up healthy and Kubiak suddenly rediscovers some of that elusive magic.
Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Texans 21
Saturday's 8:00PM ET Game
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers opens the postseason with a full arsenal as slot man Randall Cobb returns from his ankle sprain and Jordy Nelson rejoined the lineup in Week 17, at the back end of an injury-plagued year. Greg Jennings caught fire late in the season, securing a team-high 15 passes for 165 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 16-17. Include red-zone maven James Jones and talented if underachieving tight end Jermichael Finley, and Green Bay boasts the most lethal pass offense in this year's playoffs. The Packers have not had all five pass catchers play in the same game since the season opener. It's the one area in which they hold a commanding edge on Minnesota. ... The Vikings ranked 24th versus the pass this regular season, allowing opponents to compile a 28:10 TD-to-INT ratio, 63.9 completion rate, and 92.3 QB rating -- the league's eighth highest clip. During Leslie Frazier's six seasons overseeing Minnesota's defense, Rodgers has shredded the Vikings for 24 touchdown passes, only four picks, and 70.7-percent completions. Green Bay is a virtual lock for passing success Saturday night at Lambeau. Minnesota will simply hope to contain it by feeding Adrian Peterson in the offensive run game and playing assignment-sound defense to keep Rodgers off the field. ... One worrisome injury for Minnesota is slot corner Antoine Winfield's broken hand, which was aggravated in last week's home win over Green Bay and limited Winfield to 18-of-65 snaps. Rodgers attacked fill-in Marcus Sherels relentlessly after Winfield's departure, and go-to guy Cobb wasn't even playing. The Cobb matchup with whomever Minnesota uses to guard the slot could have a big impact on the outcome of this game.
The Vikings can rush the passer (fifth in sacks) and hold their own against the run (No. 11 rank), but the back end of Frazier's defense is reeling entering January. Right corner Chris Cook has struggled since returning from a broken arm two games ago. Winfield isn't himself, and rookie Josh Robinson's playing time has been cut. Top outside reserve A.J. Jefferson was never any good, and along with Sherels got eaten alive in the Week 17 game by Rodgers. Nelson, Cobb, Jennings, and Jones ought to have their way with this unit. And Rodgers doesn't play favorites in his progressions; he unfailingly throws to the open man. ... The Packers are committed to a hot-hand backfield approach, although the running game could be a bit of an afterthought in the Wild Card Round considering Minnesota's stoutness versus the run and susceptibility against the pass. 5-foot-8, 203-pound scatback type DuJuan Harris (14 carries, 70 yards) carried the mail in Week 17. In Week 16, late-season street free agent pickup Ryan Grant led the team in carries (20) and rush yards (80), scoring a pair of garbage-time touchdowns. Alex Green had been the lead back before that. Ultimately, Packers coach Mike McCarthy utilizes the running game as a change-of-pace element of offense; a complementary means of moving the ball. If the run game is not clicking early on, McCarthy will be more than willing to abandon it and give Rodgers the keys.
Although Christian Ponder has played better recently, the Vikings can confidently be expected to saddle up Peterson as their offensive centerpiece. Facing Packers coordinator Dom Capers' mixed fronts, Peterson gashed Green Bay for 409 yards on 55 carries (7.44 YPC) in these clubs' two regular season meetings, scoring three touchdowns. Capers used an eight-man box on 13 of the 55 runs. Peterson averaged an incredible 6.9 yards per tote versus the 13 crowded looks. ... An unsung hero behind Minnesota's rushing success has been lead blocker Jerome Felton, who had Packers inside linebacker A.J. Hawk's number in Week 17 and has quietly been a bulldozing force all season. Green Bay ranks 17th in run defense and allows the seventh most yards per carry in football (4.53), so Capers' group is very much vulnerable on the ground. ... Rock-solid line play is another reason for Vikings optimism. Tackles Matt Kalil and Phil Loadholt, guards Charlie Johnson and Brandon Fusco, and center John Sullivan have been a picture of continuity; not one of them has missed a start this year. Kalil limited All-World pass rusher Clay Matthews to three tackles, one sack, and one QB hit in the regular season finale. Ponder has absorbed just four sacks and committed one turnover in his last three games, while accounting for five all-purpose touchdowns.
Ponder made big-time throws late in the Week 17 upset and finished with a season-best 120.2 passer rating. While Ponder may prove in over his head if Minnesota falls behind, demanding that its quarterback engineers a comeback, he is playing well enough to effectively manage games and keep his team competitive. Overall, the passing game is still a weakness on the Vikings' side. They can't afford a big early-game deficit. ... Z receiver Michael Jenkins managed three catches for 37 yards and a touchdown in the two 2012 meetings with Green Bay. He's mostly a blocking receiver. ... X receiver Jerome Simpson was a major disappointment in his first -- and likely last -- regular season with Minnesota, catching 26 passes for 274 yards and zero touchdowns. He didn't exceed 50 yards in any of his 12 appearances. ... Rookie slot man Jarius Wright possesses big-play ability, but has been wildly inconsistent filling in for injured Percy Harvin. Wright did blow by Packers right corner Sam Shields for a 65-yard bomb off play-action to set up last week's game-winning touchdown. If the Vikings are to have any semblance of passing success in Green Bay, Wright and Kyle Rudolph are the likeliest means. ... Rudolph has been less of a receiving factor down the stretch, however, as his on-field impact is showing up more as a blocker in the running game. He still finished the regular season with nine touchdowns. All nine occurred in the red zone.
Score Prediction: Packers 30, Vikings 20
Saturday's 4:30PM ET Game
Cincinnati @ Houston
The Texans are playing at home as 4.5-point favorites in the Wild Card Round, but this is a club springing leaks. Houston has dropped three of its last four games and become a different team over the course of the year. The run game isn't nearly as dominant as it used to be. When Arian Foster hasn't faced the Colts' bottom-four run defense, he's managed 392 yards on his last 117 carries (3.35 YPC), wearing down on a league-most 391 touches. Houston's pass defense, another early-season strength, has been problematic since midyear. The Texans haven't so much as intercepted a pass since Dec. 2, over that span allowing Andrew Luck (twice), Christian Ponder, and Tom Brady to amass a 9:0 TD-to-INT ratio against them. Cincinnati is a much hotter team, having won seven of its last eight with the lone loss occurring in Week 14 versus Dallas, 20-19, in a game the Bengals controlled for three-plus quarters. Aside from the fact that the Texans are at home, it's hard to pinpoint reasons for confidence in Gary Kubiak's team. ... A.J. Green is the big name in Cincy's offensive corps, but complementary pass catchers Jermaine Gresham and Andrew Hawkins may give Wade Phillips' defense just as many issues. Having lost inside linebackers Brian Cushing (ACL) and Darryl Sharpton (hip) for the season, the Texans will trot out coverage-deficient veterans Bradie James and Tim Dobbins as starters. Houston slot corner Brice McCain is out with a broken foot. Feisty, elusive, and deceptively physical, Hawkins will be a tough cover for overmatched fill-in CB Brandon Harris. Gresham is a pedestrian talent, but he too will be a difficult assignment for the likes of James, Dobbins, and Barrett Ruud. The Bengals can win these matchups over the middle.
Green will square off with Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson on the perimeter. Rather than shadowing No. 1 receivers, the Texans have generally played "sides" at corner this year, leaving Joseph on the right and Jackson on the left. Joseph had a disappointing season and at this point is arguably the weaker link. Houston's pass defense failings make this a plus matchup for Green and upstart rookie X receiver Marvin Jones, who sees far fewer targets than Green but flashes playmaking ability. ... For the second straight year, Andy Dalton has faded down the stretch. Over his last five games, he's accounted for six touchdowns compared to seven turnovers with a paltry 5.84 yards-per-attempt average. Dalton has talent limitations, and they become glaring when his pass protection experiences any hint of leakage, or when Green isn't consistently winning outside. Dalton and a run game that was down, then up, then down again over the course of the year are Cincinnati's biggest question marks. ... J.J. Watt is a literal one-man wrecking crew. He carried Houston's pass rush on his back this season, leading the NFL with 20.5 sacks. Watt moves all around the formation, playing tackle in dime packages and both end spots on base downs. Neutralizing Watt will be critical for Cincy's upset chances. The Bengals have a top-five offensive line, excelling in both pass and run blocking. ... Feature back BenJarvus Green-Ellis will start against the Texans, but missed Week 17 with a hamstring strain and whether he'll be at full strength Saturday is uncertain. The Texans' heavyweight front seven defends inside runners like Green-Ellis much better than perimeter threats ala Bengals pace-change back Cedric Peerman, so it might not be a bad idea for playcaller Jay Gruden to scale back Green-Ellis' snaps. If Gruden insists on feeding an ineffective Law Firm, the Cincy offense could render itself one dimensional.
Foster made fantasy football owners happy all year, but his on-field performance has increasingly become a major worry. And it's not all on him. Using rare offensive line committees at right tackle (Derek Newton, Ryan Harris) and right guard (rookies Brandon Brooks and Ben Jones), the Texans have struggled mightily on outside zone runs. The run game is the foundation of Houston's offense, and it's become decidedly mediocre. On Saturday, the right side of Houston's line will match up with Bengals All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins and wickedly-talented left end Carlos Dunlap. Not only does Cincinnati rank third in the NFL in sacks (51), it creates run-game havoc via backfield penetration. This defense is good enough up front to thwart Houston's sagging ground attack, turning Matt Schaub from glorified game manager into the single biggest reason the Texans win or lose. ... Recent play suggests Schaub isn't the man for the job. Timid and too reliant on the checkdown, Schaub has completed 84-of-131 passes for 946 yards (7.22 YPA), one touchdown, and three interceptions over the last four games. He's also absorbed 12 sacks, the highest total during a four-game stretch of Schaub's career. As alluded to previously, Mike Zimmer's defense happens to be pretty good at rushing the passer. It's another big cause for concern for Houston.
Houston and Cincinnati met in last year's Wild Card Round, as well, and Andre Johnson whipped the Bengals for 90 yards and a touchdown on five receptions. It's debatable whether last year's playoff stats have any relevance whatsoever for the rematch, but Johnson could conceivably put up even bigger numbers should Zimmer's front seven control the Texans' rushing design, as is being predicted here. Johnson was an absolute monster in the 2012 regular season, setting a career high with 1,598 receiving yards at age 31. ... Houston uses a rotation of possession threat Kevin Walter and rookie DeVier Posey at Z receiver. Walter has topped 33 yards just once since mid-November, while Posey is attempting to battle through a recent spate of drops. Any production the Texans get from Walter or Posey should be considered a bonus. ... A big-time pass-catching weapon early in the season, injuries have pushed tight end Owen Daniels to the backburner for the past month and a half. Daniels has dealt with chest, knee, hamstring, and back ailments dating back to Week 12, failing to clear 50 receiving yards in any of the ensuing six games. Kubiak's offense was at its early- and midseason best when Daniels, X-factor Garrett Graham, and swiss-army-knife fullback James Casey were clicking in two- and three-tight end packages. But it hasn't been that way for awhile. The Texans will move the ball in the passing game if Daniels shows up healthy and Kubiak suddenly rediscovers some of that elusive magic.
Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Texans 21
Saturday's 8:00PM ET Game
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers opens the postseason with a full arsenal as slot man Randall Cobb returns from his ankle sprain and Jordy Nelson rejoined the lineup in Week 17, at the back end of an injury-plagued year. Greg Jennings caught fire late in the season, securing a team-high 15 passes for 165 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 16-17. Include red-zone maven James Jones and talented if underachieving tight end Jermichael Finley, and Green Bay boasts the most lethal pass offense in this year's playoffs. The Packers have not had all five pass catchers play in the same game since the season opener. It's the one area in which they hold a commanding edge on Minnesota. ... The Vikings ranked 24th versus the pass this regular season, allowing opponents to compile a 28:10 TD-to-INT ratio, 63.9 completion rate, and 92.3 QB rating -- the league's eighth highest clip. During Leslie Frazier's six seasons overseeing Minnesota's defense, Rodgers has shredded the Vikings for 24 touchdown passes, only four picks, and 70.7-percent completions. Green Bay is a virtual lock for passing success Saturday night at Lambeau. Minnesota will simply hope to contain it by feeding Adrian Peterson in the offensive run game and playing assignment-sound defense to keep Rodgers off the field. ... One worrisome injury for Minnesota is slot corner Antoine Winfield's broken hand, which was aggravated in last week's home win over Green Bay and limited Winfield to 18-of-65 snaps. Rodgers attacked fill-in Marcus Sherels relentlessly after Winfield's departure, and go-to guy Cobb wasn't even playing. The Cobb matchup with whomever Minnesota uses to guard the slot could have a big impact on the outcome of this game.
The Vikings can rush the passer (fifth in sacks) and hold their own against the run (No. 11 rank), but the back end of Frazier's defense is reeling entering January. Right corner Chris Cook has struggled since returning from a broken arm two games ago. Winfield isn't himself, and rookie Josh Robinson's playing time has been cut. Top outside reserve A.J. Jefferson was never any good, and along with Sherels got eaten alive in the Week 17 game by Rodgers. Nelson, Cobb, Jennings, and Jones ought to have their way with this unit. And Rodgers doesn't play favorites in his progressions; he unfailingly throws to the open man. ... The Packers are committed to a hot-hand backfield approach, although the running game could be a bit of an afterthought in the Wild Card Round considering Minnesota's stoutness versus the run and susceptibility against the pass. 5-foot-8, 203-pound scatback type DuJuan Harris (14 carries, 70 yards) carried the mail in Week 17. In Week 16, late-season street free agent pickup Ryan Grant led the team in carries (20) and rush yards (80), scoring a pair of garbage-time touchdowns. Alex Green had been the lead back before that. Ultimately, Packers coach Mike McCarthy utilizes the running game as a change-of-pace element of offense; a complementary means of moving the ball. If the run game is not clicking early on, McCarthy will be more than willing to abandon it and give Rodgers the keys.
Although Christian Ponder has played better recently, the Vikings can confidently be expected to saddle up Peterson as their offensive centerpiece. Facing Packers coordinator Dom Capers' mixed fronts, Peterson gashed Green Bay for 409 yards on 55 carries (7.44 YPC) in these clubs' two regular season meetings, scoring three touchdowns. Capers used an eight-man box on 13 of the 55 runs. Peterson averaged an incredible 6.9 yards per tote versus the 13 crowded looks. ... An unsung hero behind Minnesota's rushing success has been lead blocker Jerome Felton, who had Packers inside linebacker A.J. Hawk's number in Week 17 and has quietly been a bulldozing force all season. Green Bay ranks 17th in run defense and allows the seventh most yards per carry in football (4.53), so Capers' group is very much vulnerable on the ground. ... Rock-solid line play is another reason for Vikings optimism. Tackles Matt Kalil and Phil Loadholt, guards Charlie Johnson and Brandon Fusco, and center John Sullivan have been a picture of continuity; not one of them has missed a start this year. Kalil limited All-World pass rusher Clay Matthews to three tackles, one sack, and one QB hit in the regular season finale. Ponder has absorbed just four sacks and committed one turnover in his last three games, while accounting for five all-purpose touchdowns.
Ponder made big-time throws late in the Week 17 upset and finished with a season-best 120.2 passer rating. While Ponder may prove in over his head if Minnesota falls behind, demanding that its quarterback engineers a comeback, he is playing well enough to effectively manage games and keep his team competitive. Overall, the passing game is still a weakness on the Vikings' side. They can't afford a big early-game deficit. ... Z receiver Michael Jenkins managed three catches for 37 yards and a touchdown in the two 2012 meetings with Green Bay. He's mostly a blocking receiver. ... X receiver Jerome Simpson was a major disappointment in his first -- and likely last -- regular season with Minnesota, catching 26 passes for 274 yards and zero touchdowns. He didn't exceed 50 yards in any of his 12 appearances. ... Rookie slot man Jarius Wright possesses big-play ability, but has been wildly inconsistent filling in for injured Percy Harvin. Wright did blow by Packers right corner Sam Shields for a 65-yard bomb off play-action to set up last week's game-winning touchdown. If the Vikings are to have any semblance of passing success in Green Bay, Wright and Kyle Rudolph are the likeliest means. ... Rudolph has been less of a receiving factor down the stretch, however, as his on-field impact is showing up more as a blocker in the running game. He still finished the regular season with nine touchdowns. All nine occurred in the red zone.
Score Prediction: Packers 30, Vikings 20
Sunday's 1:00PM ET Game
Indianapolis @ Baltimore
Popular sentiment may posit that the Ravens backed into the playoffs after dropping four of their last five games, but it's worth noting that they smoked the Giants 33-14 two weeks ago and rested starters in Week 17. And Baltimore is getting someone special back for the first round. While it's impossible to quantify the emotional boost from Wednesday's announcement of surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer Ray Lewis' impending retirement, his return is likely to have some effect on Sunday's game. Lewis will be on the field with his teammates -- back from an 11-week triceps injury -- and claims to be "100 percent" healthy. Lewis' skills appeared to be diminishing early in the year, but he should be a run-defense upgrade with fresh legs after the layoff. ... Schematically, Baltimore has an edge on Indianapolis from the standpoint that the Colts are a decidedly vertical-passing team and border on one dimensional in that respect. Playcaller Bruce Arians' system demands that Andrew Luck make a high volume of low-percentage downfield throws, which helps explain the still largely impressive rookie's unimpressive turnover count (23), completion rate (54.1), and QB rating (76.5). The Ravens happen to have a takeaway specialist in the back end of their defense in centerfield safety Ed Reed, who butters his bread by picking off vertical throws. Although 2012 was not Reed's best season, he still intercepted four passes and has a whopping eight picks in 11 career playoff games. Baltimore is a good bet to win Sunday's turnover battle.
Luck finished his first NFL season ranked fifth in pass attempts, and coach Chuck Pagano recently acknowledged that he's playing with a "tired arm." Both the national and local medias have been protective of the Golden Boy, so little was made of the comment. The numbers bear it out. Luck has completed just 78 of his last 168 passes (46.4 percent) for 1,012 yards (6.02 YPA). While he's compensated with a 4-1 record and 8:5 TD-to-INT ratio across that span, the sustainability of the latter two statistics is worth questioning. Luck could be exposed a bit by a rested Ravens defense that's especially likely to be high on energy in Lewis' return. ... Donnie Avery and dynamic rookie T.Y. Hilton are Indianapolis' purest vertical weapons, but Reggie Wayne is the sustainer on offense. A short-to-intermediate receiver at this stage of his career, 34-year-old Wayne finished the regular season ranked sixth in receptions (106), seventh in receiving yards (1,355), and fourth in first-down catches (73). It would be safe to expect Wayne to have a Wild Card game voluminous on targets and grabs. The Ravens must limit Indy's big plays in the passing game, however, and Reed should have a lot to do with it. ... A grinding, workmanlike runner, fifth-round rookie Vick Ballard is the Colts' every-down back. While Ballard is a suitable fit for Arians' power-running offense, he managed just four runs of 20-plus yards during the regular season, handling 211 rushing attempts. Among backs with at least 200 carries, only three (Shonn Greene, Mikel Leshoure, banged-up Trent Richardson) had fewer 20-yard gains. Ballard is capable of moving the chains as a complement to the passing game, but he's not quite a difference maker.
Joe Flacco's contract year didn't live up to expectations, but he did deliver Baltimore a fifth playoff berth in five seasons while posting a career-high 3,817 passing yards. Flacco was particularly sharp at home, where Sunday's Wild Card game will conveniently take place. In eight games at M&T Bank Stadium, Flacco completed 176-of-283 throws (62.2 percent) for 2,363 yards (8.35 YPA), and a 15:5 TD-to-INT ratio, with three additional touchdowns on the ground. The Colts rank 21st in pass defense and 24th in sacks, so this is a favorable matchup. ... Like Flacco, Torrey Smith opened the regular season piping hot only to fade in late fall and winter. Also like Flacco, Smith was much more productive at home, where he scored seven of his eight touchdowns and racked up 59.3 percent of his yards. Flacco would be smart to aggressively target Smith when matched up with burnable Colts left cornerback Cassius Vaughn. Baltimore needs to stay away from right corner Vontae Davis. ... Ravens slot receiver Anquan Boldin sat out Week 17 to rest a shoulder injury and practiced fully this week. Physical, 6-foot-1, 223-pound Boldin will spend most of Sunday's game in 5-foot-10, 185-pound Colts slot CB Darius Butler's coverage. Boldin turned 32 in October, but still paced Baltimore in 2012 targets, catches (65), and receiving yards (921).
Three players handle Baltimore's pass-catching load. No. 3 is tight end Dennis Pitta, coming off a breakout third NFL season. Though he lacks flashy measurables, Pitta dropped just three passes all year, securing 61 and reaching pay dirt seven times. Pitta is a reliable underneath target for Flacco, often picking up the slack when aging Boldin has down games. ... The star of Baltimore's Wild Card Round offense still figures to be do-it-all tailback Ray Rice, who closed out the regular season with 441 yards on his final 89 carries (4.96 YPC) and will be fresh after playing single-digit snaps in the Ravens' Week 17 rest game. Indianapolis ranks 29th against the run, serving up an AFC-most 5.14 yards per carry. No team in the NFL has allowed more running plays of 20-plus yards. If Rice touches the football 20 times in this game -- and he ought to -- the Ravens will win.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 21
Sunday's 4:30PM ET Game
Seattle @ Washington
The Seahawks and Redskins play a very similar brand of offense. Quarterbacked by dual-threat playmakers, both clubs flummox defenses in the read-option game and set up shot-play downfield throws off play-action. Seattle and Washington are run-based zone-blocking teams, each finishing the season in the bottom-three in pass attempts. Stretching defenses vertically, they also both ranked in the top-three in yards per throw. The big difference between the clubs lies on defense, where the Seahawks hold a significant edge. Seattle allowed the fewest regular season points in football, and the fourth fewest yards. Despite stretch-run improvement, the Skins served up the 11th most points and fifth most yards. Not his elusive, spectacular self playing with a bulky right-knee brace, Robert Griffin III has his work cut out to generate aerial success versus Seattle's top-six pass defense. With right corner Brandon Browner back from suspension and left cornerback Richard Sherman escaping punishment altogether, the Seahawks are capable of essentially eliminating perimeter pass catchers like Pierre Garcon with physical press-man coverage. ... Playcaller Kyle Shanahan and RG3 must get creative. Seattle's defense excels at disrupting pass routes and is not vulnerable in any particular area. Washington simply will not move the ball or score points without a brilliantly designed game plan from Shanahan. Seattle has not allowed more than 17 points to an opponent since November and arguably has the best defense in the NFL right now. They're a very difficult team to play against.
Alfred Morris may be the single biggest key to the Redskins' Wild Card Round offense. Ripping right past any notion of a Rookie Wall, Morris has actually gotten better as the season moves along, amassing 1,076 yards on his last 220 carries (4.89 YPC) after averaging 4.67 yards on his initial 115 pro runs. The zone scheme consistently springs Morris into space, and he attacks oncoming defenders with tackle-breaking violence. If Griffin is to connect with Garcon, Z receiver Leonard Hankerson, or slot man Santana Moss off play-action fakes, it will be because the Seahawks are more worried about Morris gashing them. ... Despite missing six games with a torn foot tendon, Garcon led Washington in 2012 receiving yards (633) and the Skins went 9-1 whenever he appeared for a game. Although this pass game had a spread-the-wealth look during its top receiver's missed time, Garcon is unfailingly the go-to guy when healthy. Shanahan keeps Garcon constantly moving around the formation to prevent against bracket coverage and double teams. The likes of Hankerson, Moss, Josh Morgan, and tight end Logan Paulsen are role players in the Shanahan system. Hank, Morgan, and Paulsen are also impact blockers in the run game.
The Skins rallied into the postseason by ripping off seven straight victories, but Seattle has just as good an argument for being the hottest team in the game. The Seahawks have one loss since October, along the way toppling Minnesota, Chicago, and San Francisco in 42-13 blowout fashion. While quarterback Russell Wilson deserves plenty of kudos, Marshawn Lynch is the offensive lynchpin after setting career highs in rush yards (1,590) and yards per carry (5.05). Washington?s defense ranked top-five versus the run during the regular season, but Lynch holds his own against stout units, amassing 342 yards and three all-purpose touchdowns on 79 carries (4.34 YPC) in four 2012 meetings with top-ten run defenses. Lynch caught fire as Seattle installed more zone-read plays in the second half of the year, ripping off eight 100-plus-yard performances over the final ten games. The zone-read freezes opposing front-seven members, literally keeping defenses on their heels. That's great news for running backs. ... Not only did Wilson match Peyton Manning's rookie touchdown pass record (26), he added four scores on the ground and became a dynamic, dual-phase weapon as playcaller Darrell Bevell diversified the late-season offense. Particularly notable for this matchup is Wilson's performance under duress, as Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett relies heavily on blitzes to mask coverage deficiencies. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson compiled an 11:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 96.7 passer rating when blitzed this season. For rookie comparison sake, Andrew Luck's TD-to-INT ratio when blitzed was 8:5 with a 77.6 rating.
Haslett's defense utilizes frequent single-high safety looks to support the run and bring an extra blitzer into the box. The gambling strategy paid dividends throughout Washington's win streak, but leaves the secondary vulnerable. It should be no surprise that the Redskins ranked third to last in the NFL in regular season pass defense. Seattle's best blitz beaters are Z receiver Sidney Rice, slot man Doug Baldwin, and No. 2 tight end Anthony McCoy, who quietly paces the Seahawks in yards-per-catch average. Just as he did with Dez Bryant in Washington's Week 17 play-in win over the Cowboys, Haslett figures to employ DeAngelo Hall in shadow coverage of opposing top receiver Rice. Hall played his best game of the season against Bryant, holding the red-hot wideout to an innocuous 71 yards on four catches. Hall has not always been so effective, though, and his matchup with Rice will be one to monitor as a potential difference-maker for the Seattle-Washington outcome. ... Seahawks X receiver Golden Tate will likely spend most of the Wild Card Round in Redskins right cornerback Josh Wilson's coverage, in another fierce one-on-one battle. Wilson is Washington's most consistent cover man. ... Seattle lacks game breakers at tight end, but it's notable that the position gives Haslett's defense fits. The Seahawks do make frequent use of two-tight end sets, and the Redskins allow league highs in receptions (105), yards (1,062), and touchdowns (10) to tight ends. McCoy and Zach Miller will be Seattle's X-factors in this game.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Redskins 20
Source: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/42254/179/matchups-wild-card-round
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